Models can guide clinical preparations
“Health care simulation modeling is a growing field, with very exciting implications,” Lenore Jarvis, MD, of George Washington University, Washington, said in an interview. The field has the potential ability to influence health care in a data-driven way, including, but not limited to, staffing and other hospital operations, as well as patient care decision-making. “In short, accurate modeling and predictions can help us to make informed health care decisions that can lead to increased quality of care, potential cost savings, and even to help save lives,” she said.
Although the details of transmission modeling were not mentioned in the study, the authors evaluated the performances of several models and scenarios. “Scenario 4, for example, was focused on in particular because it best captured the observed dynamics [for RSV] that emerged during the spring and summer of 2021,” Dr. Jarvis said.
“Pediatricians can speak to these trends firsthand. A decrease in expected RSV infections and hospitalizations in 2020, followed by an unprecedented and early increase in RSV infections and severity in 2021, and the factors that the authors account for make sense, such as reintroduction of RSV from other regions and low immunity in the population,” she said. “It also makes sense that, in these transmission modeling scenarios, the expected mean age of hospitalization because of RSV increased with a temporary (hopefully) increase in RSV hospitalizations in the 2021 season, and potentially the 2022 RSV season.”
As for additional research, Dr. Jarvis said she would like to see follow-up data on the RSV transmission modeling. “For example, with scenario 4, does this scenario continue to perform well in other time periods, such as the winter? If the modeling continues to be accurate during other periods of evaluation and reevaluation, this modeling could be very useful in helping pediatric clinics and hospitals to prepare for RSV care and hospital capacity management.”
The study was supported by grants to various researchers from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health, the National Center for Advancing Translational Science at the National Institutes of Health, and NIH Roadmap for Medical Research. Lead author Ms. Zheng had no financial conflicts to disclose. Her study coauthors disclosed relationships with companies including AbbVie, Merck, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, MedImmune, and Janssen. Dr. Jarvis had no financial conflicts to disclose and serves on the Pediatric News editorial advisory board.