Researchers reported on their analysis of past prevalence of HCV, NASH, and alcoholic cirrhosis and prediction of future trends and their effect on hepatocellular carcinoma in the Feb. 24 online edition of the Journal of Clinical and Experimental Hepatology.
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The analysis, based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network, shows that the prevalence of HCV has been in steady decline since 2005 and that decline is forecast to continue. From a prevalence of 3.22 million cases in 2005, researchers have forecasted a decline to 1.06 million cases by 2025.
At the same time, even a conservative linear model for the changing prevalence of NASH forecast a rapid increase from 1.37 million cases in 2005 to 17.95 million in 2025. The exponential model suggested an increase from 2.41 million in 2005 to 42.34 million in 2025.