Hospitalizations rise with age
The investigators also estimated the proportion of infected patients who require hospitalization. Their estimation was based on data from a subset of cases reported in mainland China. The hospitalization estimates range from zero among the youngest patients to 18% among the oldest.
“Although China has succeeded in containing the disease spread for 2 months, such containment is unlikely to be achievable in most countries. Thus, much of the world will experience very large community epidemics of COVID-19 over the coming weeks and months. Our estimates of the underlying infection fatality ratio of this virus will inform assessments of health effects likely to be experienced in different countries, and thus decisions around appropriate mitigation policies to be adopted,” Dr. Verity and colleagues concluded.
In his editorial, Dr. Ruan agreed with that assessment. “Although China seems to be out of the woods now, many other countries are facing tremendous pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic,” he wrote. “The strategies of early detection, early diagnosis, early isolation, and early treatment that were practiced in China are likely to be not only useful in controlling the outbreak but also contribute to decreasing the case fatality ratio of the disease.”
The study was supported by the UK Medical Research Council. Dr. Verity and Dr. Ruan have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.
A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.