‘We have not turned the corner’
Jill Foster, MD, a pediatric infectious disease physician at the University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, said in an interview that the study adds evidence: “We have not turned the corner on COVID-19 and are nowhere near herd immunity – if it exists for SARS-CoV-2.”
She said the numbers presented are particularly concerning in regard to how many people were susceptible and were actively able to infect others: “Much higher than most people imagined and very much higher than their comparison, influenza.
“There are still more people susceptible than we had believed,” Dr. Foster added. “If the pattern continues where the Delta variant infects a significant portion of those vaccinated, the number of people susceptible rises even higher than was predicted.”
She said that it is reassuring that the analysis shows a decrease in case fatality and said the finding supports the common opinion that medicine is better able to fight the disease.
“However,” she said, “the optimism is tempered by acknowledging that in order to benefit from these advances, we must not overwhelm the facilities where patients are cared for so that optimal care can be delivered.”
Dr. Foster said these numbers represent a warning that COVID should be treated as a continuing threat.
“We need to acknowledge that there is COVID-19 infection simmering and periodically erupting throughout the country,” she said. “It is not monolithic and varies by geography and seasons in ways that are difficult to predict other than at any given time there is likely more infection present than we are identifying and more people susceptible to infection than we have calculated.”
The authors and Dr. Gerald have disclosed no relevant financial relationships. Dr. Foster has received clinical trials funding from Moderna.
A version of this article first appeared on Medscape.com.