The partial early diagnosis scenario assumes that everyone with Alzheimer’s has a 70% chance of being diagnosed with MCI every 2 years; this would yield a total diagnostic rate of 88%.
Under this scenario, the model projected a total care cost of $40.1 trillion – a $7 trillion benefit composed of $3.3 trillion in Medicare savings, $2.3 trillion in Medicaid savings, and $1.4 trillion in other savings.
“Thus, nearly all of the potential savings of early diagnosis can be realized under the partial early diagnosis scenario,” the report noted.
These savings would be realized over a long period, but there could be massive shorter-term benefits as well, the report said. Savings under the partial early-diagnosis scenario could be $31.8 billion in 2025 and $231.4 billion in 2050.
That would be good financial news, especially in light of the report’s current cost analysis. In 2018, the cost of caring for Alzheimer’s patients and those with other dementias is on track to exceed $277 billion, which is $18 billion more than the United States paid out last year. If the current diagnostic scenario and incidence rates continue unabated, the report projected an annual expense of $1.35 trillion for care in 2050.