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Alzheimer’s Prevalence Predicted to Double by 2050


 

An estimated 6.9 million older adults are living with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in the United States, and another 200,000 people under age 65 have younger-onset AD, new data showed.

Findings from the annual report from the Alzheimer’s Association showed little change in AD prevalence since 2023, but study authors predicted the number of people over 65 with AD will nearly double by 2050.

The report also included sobering statistics on AD-related mortality — which increased 141% between 2001 and 2021 — and described “dementia neurology deserts” that will leave some states with less than 10 neurologists per 10,000 people with dementia as early as 2025. The shortages extend to other specialties, clinical professionals, and direct care workers, the report authors wrote.

“Dementia healthcare is a complex maze composed of primary care providers, specialists, social services, medication management, and caregiver support,” Sam Fazio, PhD, senior director, psychosocial research and quality care, Alzheimer’s Association, said in a press release.

“As the number of individuals living with Alzheimer’s continues to grow, ensuring patients, their caregivers, and families have a clear understanding of how to navigate dementia care resources is critical to improving health outcomes,” Dr. Fazio added.

The “2024 Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Figures” study and accompanying report “Mapping a Better Future for Dementia Care Navigation” were published online on March 20 by the Alzheimer’s Association and will appear in the May issue of Alzheimer’s & Dementia.

Significant Increase in Mortality

The number of people over 65 with AD rose slightly in 2024 to 6.9 million from 6.7 million in 2023. The number of younger-onset AD cases remained roughly the same.

States and counties in the eastern and southeastern United States have the highest percentage of people over 65 with AD, with the District of Columbia reporting 16.8% and New York, Florida, and Mississippi between 12.5% and 12.7%. Alaska has the lowest with 8.8%.

Based on an analysis of death certificate data, the number of deaths from AD increased 141% between 2000 and 2021, while deaths from heart disease — the number-one cause of death — decreased 2.1%. Among people aged 70, 61% of those with AD are expected to die before age 80 compared with 30% of those without AD.

The cost of health and long-term care for people with AD has also risen, the data suggested, with a projected total for 2024 of $360 billion, a $15 billion increase since 2023. That figure does not include unpaid caregiving by family and friends, which the report valued at nearly $350 billion.

With the prevalence of AD expected to rise — the report projected 11.2 million by 2040 and 12.7 million by 2050 — mortality, morbidity, and healthcare costs will only continue to go up. Without new treatments and advancements in care, study authors estimated the cost will reach $1 trillion in 2050.

The report also waded into the issue of workforce deficits. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of direct care workers in the United States increased from 3.2 million to 4.8 million. Study authors estimated more than 1 million additional direct care workers will be needed before 2031.

There is a shortage of clinicians as well, especially for geriatricians, specially trained family physicians, or board-certified internists who can screen for, detect, and diagnose possible dementia. The National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (NCHWA) determined shortages in that specialty began a decade ago, and the projected need for geriatricians is expected to far exceed the supply in every region of the United States by 2050.

The NCHWA also projected a shortfall of neurologists by 2025. The report listed 20 US states as “dementia neurology deserts,” meaning they’re projected to have fewer than 10 neurologists per 10,000 people with dementia in 2025.

Several factors may contribute to the scarcity of specialists. In addition to an aging population, contributors include lower pay for geriatricians and neurologists compared with other specialists, an inadequate number of clinician educators with relevant specialties on faculties of health professional schools, and limited incentives to choose these specialties.

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