, according to a study in Alzheimer’s and Dementia.
Courtesy CDC
Prior to this study, no research had defined future estimates based on projected changes among demographic groups.
Researchers combined information about the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) by demographic group in 2014 Medicare-Fee-for-Service data with population projections data from the U.S. Census Bureau to assess how existing disparities by demographic group will change as those demographic groups become more or less represented in the U.S. population. They estimated the future prevalence of ADRD for 70 subgroups; these groups were defined by sex, seven racial and ethnic groups, and five age groups. The researchers estimated that in 2014 African Americans had the highest prevalence of ADRD at 13.8%, followed by Hispanics at 12.2%, non-Hispanic whites at 10.3%, American Indian and Alaska Natives at 9.1%, and Asian and Pacific Islanders at 8.4%.
The researchers estimated an overall increase from about 5.0 million people (1.9% of the U.S. population) in 2014 to about 13.9 million (3.3% of the population) in 2060. The non-Hispanic whites group will have the largest total number of cases of ADRD in 2060 because of its relative size, compared with other subgroups, going from about 3.7 million in 2014 to 7.1 million. The ADRD prevalence in non-Hispanic whites will begin to plateau around 2030, whereas the Hispanic population is expected to see the greatest increase, going from 430,000 in 2014 to 3.2 million in 2060.
Some of the limitations of the study include the assumption that the Medicare Fee-for-Service population is representative of the U.S. population and that these prevalences will remain constant over time.
“These estimates can be used for public health planning related to providing culturally competent care for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers from diverse backgrounds,” the researchers concluded.
SOURCE: Matthews KA et al. Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Sep 19. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2018.06.3063.
This article was updated 10/4/18.