Original Research

Timing of Adverse Events Following Geriatric Hip Fracture Surgery: A Study of 19,873 Patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program

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RESULTS

In total, 19,873 geriatric patients undergoing a hip fracture surgery were identified (Table 1). The rates of adverse events ranged from 6.7% for urinary tract infection to 0.6% for pulmonary embolism (Table 2).

Table 1. Patient Population

Number

Percent

Total

19,873

100.0%

Age

70-74 years

1852

9.3%

75-79 years

2764

13.9%

80-84 years

4328

21.8%

85-89 years

5525

27.8%

≥90 years

5404

27.2%

Sex

Male

5359

27.0%

Female

14,514

73.0%

Body mass index

<30 kg/m2

17,733

89.2%

≥30 kg/m2

2140

10.8%

Functional status

Independent

14,348

72.2%

Dependent

5525

27.8%

Diabetes

3321

16.7%

Congestive heart failure

738

3.7%

Dyspnea on exertion

1542

7.8%

Hypertension

14,265

71.8%

End-stage renal disease

322

1.6%

COPD

2239

11.3%

Current smoker

1506

7.6%

Abbreviation: COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Table 2. Patients with Adverse Events Diagnosed During the First 30 postoperative days (N = 19,873)

Adverse Event

Number

Percent

95% CI

Urinary tract infection

1321

6.7%

6.3%-7.0%

Mortality

1240

6.2%

5.9%-6.6%

Pneumonia

771

3.9%

3.6%-4.2%

Sepsis

428

2.2%

2.0%-2.4%

Myocardial infarction

347

1.8%

1.6%-1.9%

Surgical site infection

247

1.2%

1.1%-1.4%

Deep vein thrombosis

199

1.0%

0.9%-1.1%

Stroke

144

0.7%

0.6%-0.8%

Cardiac arrest

136

0.7%

0.6%-0.8%

Pulmonary embolism

126

0.6%

0.5%-0.7%

Abbreviation: CI, confidence interval.

Figure 1 depicts the timing of postoperative adverse events in detail in histograms and timing curves. For the earliest diagnosed adverse events, the rate of adverse events had diminished by postoperative day 30. For the later diagnosed adverse events, the rate of adverse events remained high at postoperative day 30.

Figure 2 provides the summary statistics for adverse events diagnosed in the first 30 postoperative days. The median postoperative day of diagnosis (and the interquartile range) was 3 (1-5) for myocardial infarction, 3 (0-8) for cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation, 3 (1-10) for stroke, 4 (2-10) for pneumonia, 4 (2-11) for pulmonary embolism, 7 (2-13) for urinary tract infection, 9 (4-16) for deep vein thrombosis, 9 (4-18) for sepsis, 11 (6-19) for mortality, and 16 (11-22) for surgical site infection.

Figure 3 depicts the timing of adverse events relative to discharge. The proportions of adverse events diagnosed prior to discharge were 81.0% for myocardial infarction, 77.8% for stroke, 76.1% for cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation, 71.9% for pulmonary embolism, 71.1% for pneumonia, 58.0% for urinary tract infection, 52.1% for sepsis, 46.9% for deep vein thrombosis, 44.3% for mortality, and 27.6% for surgical site infection.

Table 3 shows the independent risk factors for earlier occurrence of adverse events. Following multivariate stepwise selection of final models, at least 1 patient characteristic was independently associated with the timing of cardiac arrest, stroke, urinary tract infection, deep vein thrombosis, and death. In contrast, no patient characteristics were independently associated with the timing of myocardial infarction, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, sepsis, and surgical site infection.

Table 3. Timing of Diagnosis of Adverse Eventsa

Adverse events and associated baseline characteristic(s)

Median postoperative day of diagnosis with vs without baseline characteristic

P-valueb

Cardiac arrest

End-stage renal disease

1 vs 3

.005

Stroke

Hypertension

4 vs 2

.025

Dependent functional status

2 vs 4

.027

Urinary tract infection

Female sex

6 vs 8

.009

Deep vein thrombosis

Body mass index ≥30 kg/m2

5 vs 10

.015

Death

End-stage renal disease

10 vs 11

.031

aBaseline characteristics that were independently associated with the timing of each adverse event were identified through a backwards stepwise selection process initially including all characteristics listed in Table 1, and sequentially excluding characteristics with the weakest associations until only characteristics with P < .05 remained. Independent associations with the timing of cardiac arrest, stroke, urinary tract infection, deep vein thrombosis, and death are shown. There were no characteristics independently associated with timing of myocardial infarction, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, sepsis, or surgical site infection; hence, these adverse events are not listed in the table.

bFrom final Cox proportional hazards models identified through multivariate stepwise selection.

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