Multimodal neuroimaging data, as well as neuropsychological testing, can be used to generate predictions of future behaviors such as adolescent alcohol use with significantly better accuracy than demographic information alone, according to a recent study. Researchers evaluated 137 healthy, substance-naïve adolescents (aged 12 to 14) who underwent neuropsychological testing and structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and then followed annually. They found:

• By age 18, 70 youths (51%) initiated moderate to heavy alcohol use, and 67 remained nonusers.

• The final random forest model was 74% accurate, with good sensitivity (74%), and specificity (73%).

• The model contained 34 predictors contributing to alcohol use by age 18, including several demographic and behavioral factors (being male, higher socioeconomic status, early dating, more externalizing behaviors, positive alcohol experiences), worse executive functioning, and thinner cortices and less brain activation in diffusely distributed regions of the brain.

Citation: Squeglia LM, Ball TM, Jacobus J, et al. Neural predictors of initiating alcohol use during adolescence. [Published online ahead of print August 19, 2016]. Am J Psychiatry. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2016.15121587.